Both climate change and the drought and subsequent food crisis in southern Africa are receiving considerable attention from the media. In this post, Greenwell Chigova links climate change as a humanitarian crisis in the South African Development Community and South Africa to the need for global cooperation in dealing with this phenomenon. Chigova relies on the reports by different organizations that deal with humanitarian and environmental issues as a basis for critical engagement.
By Greenwell Chigova, University of KwaZulu-Natal
The southern Africa sub-region comprises the total geographical area occupied by
member states of the Southern Africa DevelopmentCommunity (SADC), which includes Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.[1] SADC has a combined population of 277 million people, and the economic status of the region is a combination of the advanced developing countries like South Africa, developing countries like Zimbabwe and least developed countries like Malawi.[2]
In most developing countries in the SADC region, agriculture is an important industry for the livelihoods of many people. Research has established that the global climate is changing, global temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are also shifting due to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.[3] It is the developed countries that continue to emit high volumes of greenhouse gases, but the poor developing countries like those in the SADC region will ultimately suffer because they lack adequate funds to engage in effective and efficient climate change programs.[4] The release of greenhouse gases by highly industrialized countries such as Japan, India, China, and the United States has accelerated the depletion of the ozone layer, leading to drastic climate changes that have affected food production across the globe.[5]
Effects of climate change on the continent
Africa is already a continent under pressure from climate stresses and is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change.[6] Much of the continent is also vulnerable to climatic-sensitive diseases, including malaria, tuberculosis and diarrhoea.[7] During climate change, rising temperatures are changing the geographical distribution of disease vectors, which are migrating to new areas and higher altitudes. For instance, the migration of the malaria mosquito to higher altitudes will expose large numbers of people who were previously not exposed.[8]
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions is pushing the earth’s temperatures higher, and the consequences include varying precipitation, extreme weather events (droughts and floods) and shifting seasons.[9] In Africa, the historical climate record shows warming of approximately 0.7 percent over most of the continent during the 20th century, a decrease in rainfall over large portions of the Sahel (the semi-arid regions south of the Sahara) and an increase in rainfall activity in east-central Africa.[10] Over the next century, this warming trend and changes in precipitation patterns are expected to continue and be accompanied by a rise in sea level and increased frequency of extreme weather events.[11]
Burning fossil fuels is the main reason behind the higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases.[12] It is likely that if strong action is not taken by governments, the 2 percent target they set for themselves will be exceeded soon.[13] The result, as earlier mentioned, will be serious consequences that include rising sea level, heat waves, loss of snow and ice cover, disruption to food production, and greater extremes of drought and rainfall.
Climate change and food security
The most direct impact of climate change is expected to be on food security because of the changes it brings to crop and livestock production.[14] Rising temperatures and challenges in rainfall patterns have direct effect on crop yields, as well as indirect effects through changes in the availability of irrigation water.[15] Decreased rainfall for prolonged periods will result in drought, while soil erosion can create problems regarding viability of land for agriculture as nutrient depletion limits the ability of many crops to prosper.[16] The agricultural sector suffers from changing rainfall patterns, temperature increases and more extreme weather events.
Climate change in South Africa
In South Africa, rainfall projections for the country predict a change in rainfall intensities characterized by the decreased frequency of low-intensity rains and longer dry periods between rainfall events.[17] Climate change poses serious threat, not only to South Africa but in other developing countries too. Maize and wheat yields have gone down in South Africa due to the effects of climate change. The focus on maize and wheat is appropriate, given that the two are the country’s major crops that have been affected by lack of precipitation.[18]
In the case of livestock, South African farmers have adopted practices aimed at the more efficient use of water and to produce own their fodder, such as lucerne or maize, and stock it for during long dry seasons when fodder is scarce.[19] Farmers are also switching to more heat-tolerant crops. In short, farmers in South Africa have started taking measures to adapt to changing climatic conditions, given their current resource endowment, but there is little surety or understanding of how these measures will stand up to the progressive climate change.[20]
Africa is the most vulnerable region to climatic change in the world because of the high percentage of the population that depends on agriculture for their livelihood. Moreover, countries in this region have fewer resources to adapt, socially, technologically and financially.[21] There is need, therefore, for a global approach to this phenomenon of climate change where developed and developing countries come together to help each other to deal with this humanitarian crisis. There is clear evidence for the need for global cooperation; developing countries need international assistance to support adaptation in the context of national planning for sustainable development and more capacity building.[22]
2015 COP 21 Paris
The United Nations Climate Change Conference of 2015 in Paris, France, is an example of international cooperation towards climate change. The conference came up with a global agreement on the reduction of climate change, the text of which represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties attending the conference.[23] The expected key result was an agreement to set a goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The participating countries agreed by consensus to the final global pact to reduce emissions as part of the method for reducing greenhouse gas. However, the Paris agreement has been criticised by some due to the fact that significant sections are promises or just aims and not firm commitment by the countries.[24] The agreement will become binding on its member states until 55 parties who produce over 55 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases have ratified the agreement, yet there is doubt if some countries, especially the United States, will do so. Each country that ratifies the agreement will be required to set a target for emission reduction, but the amount will be voluntary.[25] There is no mechanism to enforce the agreement but only a “name and shame” system.[26] Without specific penalty gradation or fiscal pressure (e.g., carbon tax) to discourage bad behaviour, the pact would not be effective. The major weakness of the Paris Agreement is that there is no detailed timetable or country specific goals that were incorporated into the agreement, which casts doubt on whether or not the agreement is binding.
Global cooperation is vital to tackle the challenge of climate change because it gives clarity and certainty on the way forward in dealing with the problem of global warming. The Paris Agreement of 2015 is an important milestone since it helps bolster individual countries’ efforts on carbon reduction and increases overall ambition to tackle climate change. The fact that all parties to the Paris Agreement, especially the highly industrialized, made a commitment to reduce emissions gives hope, though the follow-up strategies are very poor.
Climate change is a humanitarian crisis which aggravates poverty and social tension. Agriculture has proved to be extremely vulnerable to climate change, as seen by the drastic decline in food production over the past two decades. As is often the case, the impacts of climate change are mostly felt by the poorest and most vulnerable people. There is, therefore, a need for a collective approach to alleviate the impact of climate change because developing countries that are adversely affected by climate change do not have enough capacity to avert this devastating phenomenon.
Rev Greenwell Chigova is a PhD Candidate in Religion and Social Transformation at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. He hails from the Southern African Country of Zimbabwe.
[1]www.sadc.org
[2]Pressend, M. 2011. Climate change effects in Africa. SADC-CNGO Regional policy paper 5 2011.
[3] Bernard, M. 2014. SADC’s response to climate change- the role of harmonized law and policy on mitigation in the energy sector, Journal of Energy in Southern Africa. Vol. 25, No. 1 February 2014.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6]G. A. Meehl, et al, 2007. Global climate projections, in, S. Solomon, et al, Climate change 2007: The physical science basis: contribution of group I to the 4th assessment report of the inter-government panel on climate change, p. 18
[7]Guerna, V. et al, 2004, Ecology drives the worldwide distribution of human disease, PLOS Biology, Oxford. 2(6): pp. 740- 746.
[8]Boko, M. et al 2007, Africa. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Contribution of working group 2 to the 4th assessment report of the Inter-government panel on climate change, Cambridge. Cambridge University Press, pp. 433- 467.
[9] Charity Manyeruke et al, Effects of climate change on food security in Zimbabwe: A socio-economic and political analysis; International journal of humanities and social science vol 3 No 6, March 2013.
[10] Paris 2015: getting a global agreement on climate change: A report by Christian Aid, Green Alliance, RSPB, and WWF, 2014, London: Green Alliance.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid
[13] Ibid.
[14] WWF Report 2014: Understanding the food energy water nexus. Climate change, the food energy water nexus and food security in South Africa.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Ibid
[17] Christensen, J. H. et al, 2007. Regional climate projections. In: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the 4th assessment report of the inter-governmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
[18] WWF report 2014.
[19] Carter, S. and Gulati, M. 2014. Climate Change, the food energy water nexus and food security in South Africa: Understanding the food energy water nexus. WFP-SA, South Africa
[20] Ibid.
[21] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. “Climate change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries”
[22] Ibid.
[23] United Nations 2015 Climate Change Conference, Paris, France.
[24] Milman, Oliver (14 December 2015) James Hansen, Father of Climate change awareness, calls Paris talks a fraud (The Guardian, London, England)
[25] Kinver, Mark (14 December 2015) “COP 21: What does the Paris climate agreement mean for me?” BBC News
[26] Nicolas, M. (25 January 2016) “Investment Governance: The real fight against emissions is being waged by markets”. Dow Jones Financial News.