This overview and analysis of the situation in Sudan by Saturnin Modeste Agramako, Luce Graduate Fellow from Hekima Institute of Peace Studies and International Relations (HIPSIR), is the first of several pieces the CIHA blog will be doing on the conflict in that country. As always, we appreciate your comments.
(image source: Eurasia Review)
The protracted political crisis in Sudan has degenerated into civil war, with two military factions taking hostage of the country since the 15th of April 2023. Since gaining independence from Britain in 1956, the country has grappled with civil wars, coups, and government suppression. The military coup led by General Omar al-Bashir in 1989 established an authoritarian regime, where the government engaged in conflicts with rebel groups in the south and western regions of the country. This resulted in the deaths and displacement of thousands of individuals. The Darfur crisis, which began in 2003, intensified the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. In addition to the economic and humanitarian challenges faced by the transitional government, the nation has also been grappling with political instability following a recent coup d’état. This power struggle has further complicated efforts to achieve stability and address the ongoing crisis, including hyperinflation, food shortages, and conflicts in regions like Darfur, Blue Nile, Kordofans ect. The country’s prolonged history of political unrest has limited access to humanitarian aid.
Political situation
The political crisis in Sudan has intensified since October 2021 following the military’s overthrow of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s transitional government. In May 2022, the African Union (AU) and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) launched a joint dialogue involving Sudanese actors, including military officers. However, this collaborative effort encountered immediate challenges and difficulties. In December 2022, Sudan’s military, political, and civilian factions signed a framework agreement aimed at resolving the crisis. However, the integration of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and former rebel groups, as outlined in the agreement, was delayed due to a power struggle between these forces. The SAF wanted a two-year integration process, while the RSF wanted ten years, causing tension between the military and the RSF. The RSF’s chief, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti), it is believed, would benefit from the deal. The instability and lack of agreement between the ruling coalitions intensified in April 2023, as they were supposed to finalize the integration of the RSF into the military and establish civilian oversight of the military’s command.
Following the signing of the framework agreement, overall unrest in Sudan has decreased. Prior to the agreement, there was a surge in protest activity against the military coup, with resistance committees organizing demonstrations in various locations across the country. Security forces intervened in around 30% of these demonstrations, resulting in reported fatalities. However, since January 2023, there has been a decline in both protest activity and state interventions in Khartoum state. The focus of demonstrations has shifted to local and professional demands rather than national-level politics. Despite this declining trend, there was an increase in protest activity recently, with resistance committees organizing protests in multiple locations across Sudan.
Between April 8, 2022, and April 7, 2023, the SAF and the RSF were responsible for more than 60% of political violence involving rebel groups in Sudan. However, the dispute over the integration of the RSF has taken precedence over discussions about the causes of conflict in the country’s peripheries. According to Reuters (2023), on April 13th, 2023, the SAF noted that the RSF were redeploying units in an uncoordinated manner towards critical infrastructure and buildings in Khartoum. This was considered an illegal move that could lead to confrontations between the two military groups. On April 15th, a violent power struggle broke out in Khartoum between the SAF and the RSF. The RSF claimed control of the presidential palace and Khartoum International Airport. These actions have resulted in clashes between the two groups in various states across Sudan, and RSF reported a 24-hour ceasefire on April 18th, which was denied by the army on its Twitter page. By April 18th, at least 200 people had died, and 1,800 were injured.
Between 15 April and 19 May 2023, Sudan experienced a sharp increase in political violence, resulting in over 1,800 reported fatalities and more than 340 recorded events, according to ACLED (2023). Violence escalated significantly compared to the preceding five weeks, with battles between the SAF and RSF being the most common type of event. Khartoum state has been the epicenter of the fighting, accounting for a majority of the recorded incidents, while West Darfur has witnessed the highest number of reported fatalities. Bombings in urban areas, particularly in Khartoum, have been a daily occurrence, and there have been numerous instances of direct targeting of civilians during this period.
Regional and international actors have played a crucial role in the Sudan crisis, with some supporting or obstructing its progression towards a prolonged civil war with wider regional implications. Notably, countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia have aligned themselves with General al-Burhan, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has backed the Rapid Support Forces. Egypt’s support for al-Burhan stems from its concerns that a democratic government in Sudan could inspire similar movements within Egypt, given its historical involvement in Sudanese affairs. Additionally, Sudan’s relationship with Ethiopia has strained due to conflicts over border disputes and disagreements related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Libya is said to be a supporter of RSF. According to The Conversation (2023), China has cooperated with the international community on peacekeeping efforts and pursued extensive economic engagement in Sudan. Conversely, Russia has prioritized arms sales over other factors like trade, aid, or peacekeeping.
Meanwhile, Sudan has declined the appointment of Kenyan President William Ruto as the leader of a quartet responsible for facilitating peace in Sudan under the regional organization Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The Sudanese Foreign Ministry has accused Kenya of displaying bias towards the rival RSF militias, pointing to statements made by senior Kenyan officials and the supportive actions of the Kenyan government towards RSF members. Sudan’s rejection reflects concerns regarding perceived partiality and its potential impact on the mediation efforts.
Humanitarian situation
The ongoing crisis in Sudan has had significant impacts on the country and its people. The violent power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in clashes across several states, causing widespread destruction and loss of life. This has affected the works of Humanitarian agencies in carrying out their activities.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported on the 30th of April 2023, that the prices of essential goods, including food and fuel, have dramatically risen, making them unaffordable for many people. This has resulted in an increasing number of tens of thousands of civilians fleeing the affected areas and seeking refuge in neighbouring countries such as Chad, Central African Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. In Khartoum, the capital city, the majority of health facilities are either closed or operating with limited capacity, leaving millions of people without access to essential healthcare. The same report indicates that 61% of health facilities in the city are closed, while only 16% are functioning normally. Moreover, the looting of humanitarian assets and offices has further hindered humanitarian efforts in critical locations, exacerbating the situation.
The humanitarian situation in Sudan continues to deteriorate, and ongoing efforts are underway to assist those in need, as highlighted by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report of 2023. The situation may worsen with the projected rainy season, which is expected to bring floods and road closures. Additionally, the conflict is taking a toll on already vulnerable host communities inside and outside Sudan. According to global traffic more than 8,000 refugees have fled the country.
Recent attacks on aid facilities in Sudan have prompted a warning from the World Food Programme (WFP) about the severe consequences. According to United Nations (UN) report of 2nd June 2023, millions of people are at risk as essential supplies, including food, nutrition provisions, vehicles, fuel, and generators, have been looted. Armed groups have repeatedly targeted WFP and partner storage facilities, resulting in casualties among aid workers. The violence is expected to cause approximately 2.5 million individuals in Sudan to face hunger in the coming months. Acute food insecurity could reach unprecedented levels, affecting over 19 million people, around 40% of the population. The WFP urgently called on all parties involved in the conflict to prioritize the safety and security of humanitarian assistance, aid workers, and assets, in order to continue life-saving operations.
Humanitarian Responses and Constraints
Due to the insecurity and violations against humanitarian personnel and assets inside Sudan, humanitarian partners are increasing their efforts to assist people seeking safety in neighbouring countries. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and its partners are stepping up their response to help those in need in Chad and South Sudan. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has also activated its Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) at multiple Points of Entry (PoE) in neighbouring countries. For instance, in response to the violence in Sudan, the European Commission (2023) provided €200,000 in April 2023 to offer immediate relief and first aid assistance to those affected, particularly in the capital city of Khartoum and other impacted states. The Sudanese Red Crescent Society utilized this funding to provide first aid, evacuation services, and psychosocial support to approximately 70,000 individuals in various regions, including Khartoum, Northern State, North Kordofan, South Darfur, and North Darfur. Additionally, an extra €200,000 was allocated to the Egyptian Red Crescent Society to assist Sudanese refugees in Egypt. This is done to assess the needs of thousands of people fleeing the conflict. Flow monitoring is being conducted at several PoEs between Sudan and neighbouring countries, and similar activities will start at PoEs along the Sudan-Chad border.
Islamic Relief’s statement on May 16, 2023 calls for an immediate end to hostilities in Sudan to protect civilians and ensure unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid throughout the country. With certain regions becoming more accessible, the organization appeals to governments worldwide to increase their financial support for the humanitarian response, stressing the need for flexible funding that can be effectively utilized and adjusted according to the evolving situation in Sudan.
Challenges such as the looting of humanitarian warehouses, violence against aid workers, and attacks on humanitarian premises continue to hinder effective humanitarian operations in Sudan. Joyce Msuya, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, has called on the parties involved to respect humanitarian workers, medical personnel, transportation, and facilities, and to facilitate relief operations. She emphasized the need for all parties to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure and allow safe passage for civilians who wish to voluntarily leave conflict areas.
Various organizations, including Sudanese Red Crescent Society volunteers and Islamic Relief, provide essential services such as first aid and psychosocial support to those affected by the war. Islamic Relief (2023)has also supplied food to a hospital in Khartoum and plans to provide medical supplies and fuel to other hospitals. Remote protection monitoring is ongoing in refugee operations within Sudan, and UNHCR and humanitarian partners are exploring ways to distribute food to refugees where items have been pre-positioned and partner staff are present.
As of May 17, 2023, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs revised its report on the situation in Sudan, revealing that humanitarian programs have been significantly affected by attacks and looting. These incidents have led to loss of life, injuries, and infrastructure damage. Humanitarian workers have been evacuated and relocated from key locations, leading to the temporary suspension of some programs. The conflict has also affected hospitals, causing further strain on the already fragile health sector. Attacks on healthcare facilities have resulted in deaths and injuries, while power shortages and limited supplies hinder the delivery of essential care. The disruption of the national vaccination program and the loss of medical supplies have worsened the health crisis. Malnutrition among children is at an alarming level, with treatment programs disrupted and a vital factory destroyed. Food shortages and price hikes have made essential goods unaffordable, and critical infrastructure, including water systems and communications networks, has been destroyed. Education has been severely affected, with schools closed in conflict-affected areas, posing risks to children’s safety and well-being. Some schools have started reopening in non-affected areas.
A team has been formed by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to assist the Sudanese Red Crescent in their daily efforts to aid those in need. Mr. Elliott of the IFRC highlighted the bravery of volunteers who fearlessly provide local support. Concerns were raised about the lack of funding to address urgent needs in Khartoum and surrounding areas, as well as reports of increasing malnutrition. On May 27, 2023, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, convened a meeting to coordinate support for Sudan, secure a cessation of hostilities, strengthen the humanitarian response, protect civilians and infrastructure, encourage the engagement of neighboring states, and facilitate an inclusive political process.
Conclusion
The combination of political instability, conflict, displacement, and humanitarian crises has devastated peace and economic development in Sudan. The looting of humanitarian warehouses, violence against aid workers, and attacks on humanitarian premises have hindered humanitarian responses, necessitating guarantees from involved parties to protect personnel and assets. Despite these challenges, partners assist affected civilians such as first aid services, psychosocial support, and hospital medical supplies. Other, ongoing efforts include remote protection monitoring and exploring modalities for food distribution to refugees. However, the crisis has raised significant concerns, with the safety of civilians and aid workers at risk due to the violence resulting from the fighting between SAF and RSF. Displacements caused by drought and inter-communal conflict have affected millions of people, including those in refugee camps who are particularly vulnerable to displacement or harm from confrontation.
The international community has called for increased support to address the urgent needs of the Sudanese people and to support efforts to stabilize the country. According to Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, ahead of his trip to the region, “the situation in Sudan is of great concern due to its unprecedented magnitude and rapidity; the immediate and long-term effects of the crisis are worrying for the entire population of Sudan as well as the neighbouring regions.” Simultaneously, ongoing armed clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are expected to continue, particularly in Khartoum, until late May. Despite peace talks facilitated by Saudi Arabia and the US, which concluded on May 11, 2023 with the signing of a commitment to protect civilians, an agreement to extend the recent ceasefire was not achieved.
To date, Sudan remains in a dire situation. The crisis goes beyond a mere civil war or humanitarian catastrophe; it raises fundamental questions about the viability and survival of the Sudanese state in the years ahead.